Surveys and polls create even more confusion over Brexit

Published:  13 Jun at 6 PM
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In spite of the fact that polls taken during the run-up to the UK’s last general election were proved totally wrong, the never-ending release of Brexit surveys and polls are now simply muddying the waters.

The results of two polls were announced yesterday, heightening Remain voters’ fears that their campaign is stalling. In contrast, the second survey appears to show the British public in general is ignorant about the real issues in the Brexit referendum. The decision, it seems, comes down to the economy versus immigration.

The latest poll, conducted for the Independent newspaper last Wednesday and Thursday, shows the Leave campaign has racked up a massive 10 point lead over the Remain group, with 55 per cent of respondents wanting out and only 45 per cent wanting to stay in. The figures themselves are weighted by citizens’ likelihood of actually getting out to vote, no matter what’s on TV at the time. Of course, turnout is impossible to predict, as has been proved over many elections.

At this point, many seem to have decided to vote Leave, although the poll indicated they think the economy trumps immigration as an issue – thus voting against themselves. The final results of the survey indicate that, when answering a question about predicting the result, 52 per cent went for Remain and just 48 per cent predicted Leave.

Support for remaining in the EU is strongest in Scotland, whose leaders have already said they will fight for independence in order to stay in the EU should Brexit succeed. Experts are refusing to back one side or the other, saying the result will be too close to call. They also mention that polls carried out by telephone give Remain more votes than do the online surveys.

The Germans, never backward in coming forward, are directly contradicting the Leave campaign and Boris Johnson’s reassurances by stating that Britain will definitely not have access to the European single market should it leave the EU. UK expats, especially retirees, living in EU member states may well be as confused as British citizens seem to be, but at least they are relatively clear about the fact that Britain’s leaving the EU will likely signal the end of their chosen lifestyles.
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